Real-Time Performance Prediction in Long-Distance Trail Running: A Practical Model Based on Terrain Difficulty and Pacing Variability

Trail running is a demanding endurance sport where performance prediction models often rely on laboratory testing or pre-race data, limiting their practical application. This study presents a real-time predictive model for marathon and ultra-trail races, based on variables recorded during the race, including uphill/downhill pace-times, terrain difficulty coefficients, and partial rankings.

This study develops a predictive model for trail running performance based on real-time race data.